摘要
作为古丝绸之路重镇，阿克苏地区拥有独具特色的文化遗产和各类型旅游资源。本研究以阿克苏地区为研究对象，依据国家统计局和生态环保部公布的GEP核算规范，对阿克苏地区2018-2022年文体商旅生态产值进行系统核算，结果显示文体商旅生态产值呈现显著增长趋势。在此基础上，采用GM(1,1)模型和ARMA(1,1)模型，对2023-2025年文体商旅生态产值进行预测，结果显示2023年约为901.1亿元，2024年约为985.32亿元，2025年约为1077.42亿元，并提出了具体的政策建议，建议加强文化资源保护与利用，发展体育基础设施和赛事活动，优化营商环境，推动旅游资源整合与智慧旅游建设，注重生态旅游和服务质量提升。研究旨在提升阿克苏地区文化、体育、商业和旅游业的产值，推动全域旅游业发展，实现社会-经济-生态的协同可持续发展。
关键词： 阿克苏地区；GEP；文体商旅生态产值；灰色预测模型；ARMA模型
Abstract
As an important town on the ancient Silk Road, Aksu region has unique cultural heritage and various types of tourism resources. Based on the GEP accounting standards published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection, the ecological output value of sports and business tourism in Aksu region during 2018-2022 was systematically calculated, and the results showed that the ecological output value of sports and business tourism showed a significant growth trend. On this basis, GM(1,1) model and ARMA(1,1) model are adopted to forecast the ecological output value of sports and business tourism in 2023-2025. The results show that the output value will be 90.11 billion yuan in 2023, 98.532 billion yuan in 2024, and 107.742 billion yuan in 2025, and specific policy suggestions are put forward. It is suggested to strengthen the protection and utilization of cultural resources, develop sports infrastructure and events, optimize the business environment, promote the integration of tourism resources and smart tourism construction, and pay attention to ecotourism and service quality improvement. The study aims to enhance the output value of culture, sports, business and tourism in Aksu region, promote the development of the whole tourism industry, and realize the coordinated and sustainable development of social, economic and ecological.governance of rural revitalization under my country's dual carbon goals.
Key words： Aksu region; GEP; Ecological output value of sports; Business and tourism; Grey forecasting model; ARMA model
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