Study on Optimizing the Forestry Investment Structure Based on the Cauchy Distribution Lag Model in China
基于考伊克分布滞后模型的我国林业投资结构优化研究

摘要

本文基于考伊克分布滞后模型，对我国1952年至2018年的林业经常性支出与资本性支出数据进行了详细分析，旨在探讨我国林业投资结构的优化路径。通过对数据的统计与建模，分析了林业经常性支出与资本性支出的增长趋势与比例关系，并据此计算了我国的林业优化投资率。研究发现，我国林业投资结构存在不合理的现象，特别是资本性支出占比偏高，影响了林业的长期稳定发展。结合当前的时事政治与林业政策，本文提出了优化林业投资结构的建议，以促进我国林业经济的可持续发展。

Abstract

Based on the Cowick distribution lag model, this paper provides a detailed analysis of China's forestry current and capital expenditure data from 1952 to 2018, aiming to explore the optimisation path of China's forestry investment structure. Through the statistics and modelling of the data, the growth trend and proportional relationship between forestry current and capital expenditures were analysed, and the optimised investment rate of China's forestry was calculated accordingly. It is found that there are irrational phenomena in the investment structure of China's forestry, especially the high proportion of capital expenditure, which affects the long-term stable development of forestry. Combined with the current affairs and politics and forestry policies, this paper puts forward suggestions to optimise the forestry investment structure in order to promote the sustainable development of China's forestry economy.